In 2015, roughly 44,000 people moved to metro Denver...A decade later, that number has dropped to about 13,000

The nearly 70% decrease in net migration between 2015 and 2025 holds ramifications for the region's economy and offers a worrying insight into its ability to compete with peers elsewhere in the country, according to the Common Sense Institute, which produced the study. 

"As migration slows, Denver may face tightening labor markets, reduced economic dynamism, and greater fiscal pressure on public services, particularly as the population ages," the authors said. 

Already, the older population in Colorado is growing fast, with ramifications for the major challenges the state faces, notably housing, healthcare costs and workforce needs. The greying population also affects student enrollment, which, in turn, means a direct impact on school financing.

Fewer people are moving to Colorado — the statewide drop is 52.5% — and its largest cities likely because of housing costs and affordability worries, according to the CSI study published on Thursday.

“We can't attribute just one cause to the declining in-migration,” CSI Deputy Director of Policy and Research Cole Anderson, who co-wrote the net migration study with Caitlin McKennie, told The Denver Gazette.

“The cost of living plays a critical role in people's decision to relocate, especially younger people,” Anderson said. “Colorado, and Denver specifically, have seen prices rise at a quicker pace than the nation and most residents feel this in their day-to-day lives.”

A slower population growth may affect long-term infrastructure planning, education enrollments and housing supplies.

“We know that the natural beauty of the state has always been a big boost, but it won't outweigh all these concerns which have continued to get worse in recent years,” Anderson said.

Does Denver's 'affordable' housing goal align with today's market needs? Experts weigh in

In 2015, the metro Denver area attracted 43,450 new residents. It is only projected to draw 13,193 this year, according to the CSI study, which cited data from the Colorado State Demography Office.

“These patterns highlight ongoing demographic and economic challenges that could have lasting implications for regional growth, labor markets, and urban planning,” the study's authors said.

Indeed, the downtrend may reflect these "deeper structural challenges," notably housing and affordability, that "diminish Colorado’s appeal as a destination for new residents," they added.

Metro Denver reached negative net migration at the height of the pandemic in 2021, when 8,490 people, after accounting for those who arrived and left, moved elsewhere.

Since 2021, the number of people moving to metro Denver has steadily increased, though it's nowhere near 2015 levels, according to demographic data.

Statewide, net migration numbers is expected to drop to 32,698 in 2025 — from 68,884 in 2015. 

Colorado's numbers, too, have gradually increased since 2021, according to CSI and the demographer's office.

"Although the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic likely contributed to these declines, the data indicate that both regions were already grappling with slowing in-migration well before 2020,” the CSI study said.

Only metro Denver saw a decline when stacked against six peer metro areas from elsewhere in the country.

Salt Lake City, for example, saw an increase of 1,800% — from negative 632 in 2014 to 10,747 in 2024.

The Phoenix, Arizona region, a direct competitor to metro Denver, experienced a 25% growth during the same period, when 70,000 people moved to the area.  

Anderson called this statistic the most telling of CSI's findings, arguing that “not only is Denver not as attractive as it once was, but we're falling behind other metro areas."

Meanwhile, in Colorado Springs, net migration numbers dropped by 28.8%.

Colorado Springs net migration numbers peaked in 2016, when 9,764 people moved to the city. That number is expected to hit 4,841 this year, according to the CSI report.

Authors: Policymakers should pay attention to trends

The CSI study authors urged state policymakers to “closely monitor these trends and address the root causes driving out-migration.”

"It's important for the general public to understand population flows into their state/city, specifically when it comes to housing," Anderson said.

"But I believe this information should more importantly be digested and understood by our policy leaders," he said, adding they "are the ones who can help make our state a more attractive place to relocate to."

They suggested the best approach is to balance workforce development, housing policies and regional planning in order to support “long-term economic resilience.”

CSI's authors projected that the metro Denver region won’t reach the numbers it saw 10 years ago.

Instead, they projected that net migration will peak at roughly 30,000 in 2028, before steadily declining to about 12,000 by 2050.

“The disproportionate decline suggests that urban-specific pressures, such as housing affordability, shifting lifestyle preferences and perceptions of livability may be playing a greater role than in surrounding areas,” the study said.

In response to the CSI study, a spokesperson for Denver's mayor recognized the link between affordable housing and attracting people to the Mile High City.

"We know that reducing cost of housing is a key priority for our residents and an important factor for people looking to move to Denver," said Jordan Fuja, "which is why we are taking steps to ensure the people who love, serve, and work in Denver can afford to live here."

This year, Denver Mayor Mike Johnston said one of his goals is to "preserve" or help in the development of more than 3,000 "affordable" housing units. Other metro Denver jurisdictions have also embarked on campaigns to spur development of affordable housing.

Peter LiFari, a CSI fellow, earlier said the regulatory framework and ecosystem associated with housing in Denver is "very problematic and remains so today.” 

Others have questioned if the city's push for "affordable" housing is sustainable and whether it aligns with today's market needs.

Shelby Wieman, press secretary for Gov. Jared Polis, said his office has not yet reviewed the report.

"But the reality is that Colorado is a top destination for visitors and people looking for a greater quality of life in our great state. Our population is increasing and we need to remove barriers to housing to keep up.”

Fewer people — by tens of thousands — are moving to metro Denver, study says

In 2015, roughly 44,000 people moved to metro Denver. A decade later, that number has dro...

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